AI concept visualisation · not a design

Confidential · Model v4.0 · 11 Sep 2026

A surf lagoon built at infrastructure cost.

Two back-to-back bays on one plot. One shared energy centre. A capital plan that retires each unproven component before the build money draws.

Both bays, ex-VAT: £2.36m
Capital to open: £2.42m
First cheque · SEIS: £250k
Y5 EBITDA · base: £660k

01 · The thesis

Demand is proven. Capital intensity is the risk.

The Wave logged about 650,000 sessions in five years, then entered administration in June 2025 over roughly £15m of build loans. Its operating business had traded. We design against that failure — not against a shortage of riders.

Evidence

Britain already buys sessions

The Wave, Coleshill and Surf London prove the category. The risk is £26–60m of concrete, not tickets.

Derived

14,100 rider-hours / £1m

Stabilised SwellSpot: 33,130 rider-hours on £2.36m. The Wave ran about 5,000 sessions a year per £1m of build.

Gate

Capital follows evidence

£250k funds the team, site, quotes and demand proof. The £1.92m build round draws only after four gates.

02 · Why this exists now

£660k on £2.42m looks cheap. Here is why it was not possible ten years ago.

Cove-class parks spent £12–60m because they copied the ocean: 15–56 acres, a destination day-trip, a large grid connection and a single construction loan. The cost point is not a secret. It is a different product.

Modular plungers, not a lake machineTwo 56 kW units per bay. Installed in months. No 180 m concrete bowl.
2–3 acres, not 15–56A local club, not a regional destination. Shared plant, one pier, one energy centre.
The Wave already taught the lessonSessions sold. The balance sheet broke. We size capital to the operating business.
Staged moneyBay B is dug, not fitted, until Bay A trades. The first cheque is £250k, not £2.4m.
Smaller infrastructure burdenCHP and battery cut the import capacity a DNO will sell you. That is often the hidden year of delay.
Vendor contract, not a prototype betSwell interval, height and 97% uptime are Gate 2 terms. Plant is not ordered before Gate 3.

Project	Reported capex	Land	Role
The Wave, Bristol	£26m	large lake	Destination · traded, then broke on loans
Surf Snowdonia	£12m+	quarry lake	Destination · closed
Urban Surf, Melbourne	£20m+	urban park	Destination
Coleshill / Stoneweg	£50m	destination park	Not yet open at time of writing
Surf London, Lee Valley	£60m	56 acres	Approved 2025, build ahead
SwellSpot UK, both bays	£2.36m	2–3 acres	Local club · phased

Reported figures from published coverage, not audited accounts. The comparison is capital intensity, not wave quality.

03 · The asset

Two bays, back to back, sharing one plant.

Dig both basins once. Open Bay A. Fit out Bay B from asset finance and Bay A cash after a trading gate. A weekly habit, not an annual day trip.

Spec	Base case
Wave	About 4 ft · 2 ft learn setting · 50-yard ride
Cycle	A swell every 8.5 seconds
Plant	Two 56 kW plungers per bay
Water	12,739 sq ft per bay
Throughput	14 surfers / bay / hour until commissioning proves more
Plot	2–3 acres · about 80 parking spaces

Bay A is lessons, families and schools. Bay B is sessions, members and evening club. Cabins sit in an optional PropCo and are not in this case.

04 · Planning and site

The largest risk is consent, not the plungers.

Gate 1 kills a plot before an option is exercised. We do not take Green Belt, flood plain or a protected landscape into Gate 3. Host leisure sites with existing consent are preferred.

Screen	Pass threshold	Evidence at Gate 1
Land type	Leisure-consented host, industrial or brownfield. Flood Zone 1. No AONB, National Park or SSSI.	Pre-application response
Noise and lighting	Plant in a central room. Hours aligned to host. No night racing.	Acoustic note + lighting plan
Highways	10 min from a motorway or A-road. About 80 spaces, or shared host parking.	Transport note
Environment	Closed-loop treatment. No discharge to a watercourse as the operating case.	Drainage and water strategy
Neighbours	Host already draws 250k+ visits, or a standalone plot with no sensitive frontage.	Host counts or walkover
Utilities	Gas main and 250 kVA import within 500 m.	Network budget offers

If pre-application fails, the option is not exercised. Tranche B never sees a refused site.

05 · Energy cost protection

The microgrid is there to protect EBITDA. Not to win an award.

Cove-class parks buy a large grid connection and then heat a lake. We buy a smaller connection, generate on site, and put waste heat into showers, sauna, clubhouse and the blanket on the bays. Gas ±30% moves project IRR by about one point. A missed DNO upgrade can move opening by a year.

Lower opex

£194k modelled energy with both bays open. Heat that would be dumped from a generator is used on site.

Smaller grid ask

CHP covers 57% of site power. The import the DNO must sell you is the remainder, plus backup.

Resilience

250 kVA battery rides through short outages so a session is not cancelled for a flicker.

Room to add solar

£245k energy centre is asset-financed. Roof and car-port PV can bolt on later without resizing the trade.

06 · Demand

Built from the ground up. Capped by the plungers.

0.8% is not a market-research slogan. It is the share of 8–54-year-olds inside a 60-minute ring that the case needs, on 2.0 visits a year. Gate 3 throws the ring away and rebuilds it on the optioned postcode, with names and deposits.

Vendor + assumption

69,020

rider-hours a year. 14 × 2 bays × 8.5 hours × 290 days. The model never prints above this cap.

Derived

114 a day

stabilised, both bays, 48% utilisation. Bay A break-even is 40 a day. Year 5 plan is 107 a day.

Assumption

13,000

paying surfers a year plus 310 members. At 1.3 visits instead of 2.0, the need rises to about 20,000 — still 1.2% of the ring.

Cross-check	Figure	What we do with it
The Wave, five years	About 650,000 sessions · 250,000 surfers	Demand exists. We take 25% of its annual sessions on 9% of its build cost.
UK Surfing and Health Report, 2024	6.27m tried a surf sport in a year · 488,000 more regular	National pool. Not a local forecast. Used only as a ceiling.
Surfing England	National governing body · clubs and membership live	School and club letters of intent are a Gate 3 condition.
Inland proof	The Wave was the inland location named by 96% of that survey	People will travel inland when the wave is reliable. We sell a weekly habit, closer to home.
Gate 3 proof, on the plot	1,500 waitlist names · £200k escrowed deposits · 5 school or club LOIs	This replaces the 0.8% assumption. No names, no Tranche B.

07 · Capital and gates

Dig once. Fit out twice.

The reserve is solved, not chosen: the smallest sum that keeps cash above £50k through the downside with no new money. VAT on tickets is netted. Build is shown ex-VAT.

Uses	£000
Phase 1 build — open Bay A	1,685
Pre-opening, incl. fractional FD	115
Transaction costs	50
Working capital	40
Downside reserve	530
Capital to open	2,420

Sources	£000
SEIS Tranche A — Gate 0	250
EIS + institutional Tranche B — Gate 3	1,920
Energy asset finance — commissioning	250
Total	2,420
Phase 2 Bay B — year 3, no new equity	670

08 · Sequence

Four unproven components. Capital follows the sequence.

G0 · TeamFractional FD. Model and data room owned. HMRC advance assurance filed.At risk £0

G1 · SiteOption on a plot that passes the screen. Isochrone re-run on that postcode.≤ £60k

G2 · CostTwo fixed-price quotes per package. SwellSpot performance contract.≤ £150k

G3 · DemandConsent. 1,500 waitlist names. £200k escrowed deposits. Then Tranche B draws.≤ £250k

G4 · Test90-day commissioning against spec before any public sale.Tranche B

G5 · Bay BTrailing 12 months: 45%+ util, £180k+ EBITDA run-rate, 97%+ uptime.£450k finance

09 · Returns

Modest per site. Stated plainly. Stress-tested.

10-year, post-tax. Project IRR uses a 5.5× year-10 EBITDA exit. The no-exit number is shown beside it. Utilisation drives the case.

	Downside	Base	Upside
Stabilised utilisation	Bay A 44%, no Bay B	A 52% · B 44%	A 60% · B 52%
Year 5 EBITDA	£109k	£660k	£887k
Project IRR, 5.5× exit	−5.7%	17.4%	22.8%
Project IRR, no exit	−16.2%	7.9%	14.0%
Payback	Not within 10	7.2 yrs	5.9 yrs
Tranche B IRR after 30% EIS	−6.5%	14.0%	18.2%
SEIS IRR after 50% relief	4.4%	26.8%	31.5%

Illustrative split after Tranche B: founders 25% · SEIS 18% · Tranche B 57%. Optional PropCo for cabins sits outside the EIS company.

10 · Founding team

Why Scott and Walter.

Investors back a process and a pair of people who have already lived the two halves of this asset: energy infrastructure, and the lagoon itself.

Commercial · energy · delivery

Scott Graham

Founder, Surf X Group Ltd. Exclusive UK and EU SwellSpot licence. Head of New Business at Skyline DC Energy, where he built the energy division. Co-founder of CrestIQ energy monitoring. Owns the commercial path, project finance and the gated raise.

Product · venue · demand

Walter Bennett

Inventor and CEO of SwellSpot. Technology partner to Surf X for about a decade. Owns the wave spec, the vendor contract and how a guest actually uses two bays. The product does not move without him.

Fractional FD · Gate 0

Owns the model, VAT, gate file and data room. Paid from Tranche A. No SEIS draw until engaged.

General manager · pre-opening

UK attractions or watersports operator. Lifeguarding and safety-management experience. Funded in the plan, not yet hired.

Investor director · Tranche B

Board seat for the lead. Related parties (licence, Skyline, CrestIQ) are disclosed and tendered.

11 · The ask

Back the process. Then the build.

Now £250k

SEIS Tranche A. Finance director, site option, pre-application, fixed-price quotes, demand proof. Stops if a gate fails.

Gate 3 £1.92m

EIS and institutional Tranche B for 57% illustrative, plus £250k energy asset finance. Opens Bay A.

Year 3–4 £0 more

Bay B from asset finance and Bay A cash once trading proves demand. No new equity.

Download the v4 proposal Request the data room

12 · The plot

How it reads from the air.

Renders are AI concept visualisations. Wave size and crowding are illustrative. Geometry is confirmed by SwellSpot at Gate 2.